Notes from class today
Where we are: in the 1980s
Presidential Voting in the South – Republicans dominate.
Congressional and Statewide voting in the South
Democrats continue to dominate.
1980 saw election of Republican US Senators in NC, GA, FL, AL, joining GOP Senators in SC, TX, VA, TN, NC, and MS
Most states still had Democratic governors and strong legislative dominance by Democrats.
The US House remained about 2/3 Democratic through the 1980s – for reasons such as strength of incumbency, candidate recruitment, the ability of white Democrats in the South to distance themselves from the national party, and the ability of Democrats to build bi-racial coalitions in districts with 20-40% o their populations were African-Americans.
Reagan continued to grow in popularity in the South.
No Democrat in the 1980s won an electoral vote in the South (Except for Carter winning Georgia in 1980)
Gradually some Democrats began to switch parties to identify with Ronald Reagan, and Republicans got better at candidate recruitment and support.
Republicans continued to make inroads in the local level, but could not get beyond 40 or so seats, largely from suburban districts.
McKee, Chapter 3, Electoral Effects of Redistricting
What does McKee suggest caused the electoral shakeup in the South in 1992 and 1994? Redistricting following the 1990 census, and a new interpretation of the Voting Rights Act that forced legislatures to maximize minority voting strength. This allowed minorities to select candidates of their own choosing.
What would it take to cause the Democrats to lose their majority?
It was going to take a shock to the system – like redistricting – to break voters’ allegiance to the Democrats.
How did the outcome of the 1992 and 1994 elections differ from those in 1986, 1988, and 1990 for U. S. House seats?
Republicans picked up new seats won in reapportionment in 1992, then took advantage of Democratic retirements and shifting loyalties in 1994 to win a majority of seats in Congress from the 11 southern states.
What were the two partisan effects of redistricting? Explain them.
One is redistricting – and shifting minority voters into majority minority districts, and thus creating more heavily white districts. (Packing and Bleaching.) The other is putting voters who are unfamiliar with the congressman or congresswoman into the district, votes who have no allegiance to the member. Those people are more likely to vote for a challenger. A third challenge is candidate recruitment.
How did the 1982 Voting Rights Act differ from the 1965 Act?
It called for maximizing minority voting strength.
What was the ultimate result of the 1982 Act – in the early 1990s?
It led to the creation of significant numbers of majority-black (or majority-Hispanic) districts. Thus surrounding districts were heavily white.